World Cup (Q): Preview of the First Round finale from the CAF region

2026 World Cup qualifying is closing in on the end of the First Round from the Africa’s CAF region with the ultimate prize at stake in many groups during the October FIFA window.

With the exception of Group E winners Morocco and Tunisia in Group H, top spot remains up for grabs in all groups and even more so, the battle remains fierce for runner-up positions in all groups where the top four nations from nine group runners-up will compete in a regional playoff to qualify for the intercontinental playoff. Below is a look at the situation in each group for Matchdays 9 & 10 following the runner-up table as it stands:

World Cup Qualifying: Table of group runners-up (Top 4 advance to the regional playoff)

1. Gabon- 19 points (GD: +10)
2. Madagascar- 16 points (GD: +7)
3. DR Congo- 16 points (GD: +7)
4. Burkina Faso- 15 points (GD: +12)
5. Cameroon- 15 points (GD: +10)
6. Namibia- 15 points (GD: +8)
7. Uganda- 15 points (GD: +5)
8. South Africa- 14 points (GD: +3)
9. Tanzania- 10 points* (GD: 0)

• *Neither FIFA nor the Confederation of African Football (CAF) have indicated how they will consider the situation of Group E, which includes Tanzania. Eritrea withdrew before the start of qualifying, leaving Group E with five teams while the rest of the groups have six teams each.

Group A

Table

1. Egypt- 20 points
2. Burkina Faso- 15 points (GD: +12)
3. Sierra Leone- 12 points (GD: +2)
4. Guinea-Bissau- 10 points
5. Ethiopia- 6 points
6. Djibouti- 1 point

The Situation

Egypt are set to secure their ticket to the World Cup finals if they can win against Djibouti in Casablanca as expected. The Pharaohs have performed as expected in a rather weak group and have plenty of margin for error this week.

Therefore, the attention turns to the battle for second place with Sierra Leone and Burkina Faso the main contenders. Their Matchday 9 battle on Wednesday, October 8 in Liberia is a must-win for hosts Sierra Leone while the Stallions of Burkina Faso will be looking for a draw or victory.

Even with a victory, however, Sierra Leone will likely need Burkina Faso to drop points at home against Ethiopia on the final matchday due to the Stallions’ substantial superiority in the goal difference tiebreaker. Guinea-Bissau are all but out of the running for a World Cup debut unless they win their final two matches, which includes an away fixture at Egypt on the final matchday.

Group B

Table

1. Senegal- 18 points
2. DR Congo- 16 points
3. Sudan- 12 points
4. Togo- 7 points
5. Mauritania- 6 points
6. South Sudan- 4 points

The Situation

A massive victory in Kinshasa put Senegal into top position and now the task is straighforward for the Lions of Teranga. They will face South Sudan away in Juba for their first match in October and then conclude the First Round with a home match against Mauritania with both opponents already eliminated from contention to qualify. Even if they draw one of these matches, Senegal remain in good shape to secure first place and their ticket to the World Cup finals.

DR Congo’s last two fixtures could be difficult. Togo, already eliminated, still have a reasonably talented squad that could cause the Leopards to drop points away from home. A failure to win against Togo will cause DRC’s final match at home against Sudan to be another potential trap, with Sudan likely to be still in the race for second place even if the finale is in Kinshasa.

Qualification is now a long shot for Sudan, who got off to such a fantastic start. They will need to win both of their final two matches to have any chance of reaching the World Cup finals.

Group C

Table

1. Benin- 14 points (GD: +4)
2. South Africa- 14 points (GD: +3)
3. Nigeria- 11 points (GD: +2)
4. Rwanda- 11 points (GD: 0)
5. Lesotho- 9 points
6. Zimbabwe- 4 points

The Situation

Group C has the most at stake with only three points separating fourth place Rwanda from group leaders Benin, who currently lead South Africa because of a slight edge in the goal difference tiebreaker.

Despite a three-point penalty due to fielding an ineligible player against Lesotho earlier this year, the schedule indicates that Bafana Bafana are the favorites to win the group and advance to their first World Cup finals since hosting the 2010 edition. Zimbabwe, forced to host their “home” fixture against South Africa in Durban due to lacking a stadium that meets CAF standards, are a talented side that could be up for the occasion even if they are eliminated at this stage. Bafana finish up as heavy favorites against Rwanda on the final matchday at home.

Nigeria, the true enigma of this qualifying campaign, remain with their backs against the wall but have quite a decent chance of finishing as runners-up. The Super Eagles will need to overcome stingy Lesotho in their first match in South Africa before the real crucial match at home against neighbors Benin. This Nigeria team has underachieved throughout qualifying but with star attackers Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman healthy, they can stay alive with two wins to end the First Round.

Despite currently leading the group on goal difference, Benin will have to produce inspired form to finish in the top-2. With Rwanda still in the chase, Benin will encounter a hostile environment in Kigali for their first match before traveling to face a desperate Nigeria team.

Group D

Table

1. Cape Verde- 19 points (GD: +5)
2. Cameroon- 15 points (GD: +10)
3. Libya- 14 points (GD: +2)
4. Angola- 10 points
5. Mauritius- 5 points
6. Eswatini- 2 points

The Situation

History beckons for Cape Verde, who only need to win one of their final two matches to secure a first-ever World Cup qualification for the island nation. A difficult taks awaits on Wednesday at Libya but their final match at home against Eswatini is much more winnable, and the Blue Sharks will look to make it a special moment in front of their home supporters.

Cameroon’s inconsistency has cost them dearly and there is still plenty of work to do if they want to advance to the Second Round regional playoff as group runners-up. The schedule is favorable with a matchup away to Mauritius before hosting Angola at home, but Libya will be nipping at their heels if the Indomitable Lions slip up as they have been known to do recently.

Libya needs to beat Cape Verde at home before traveling to face Mauritius on the final matchday. Coach Aliou Cissé has already shown his capabilities since taking charge and only one point separates them from Cameroon who may give the Mediterranean Knights the opportunity they desire to move into second place.

Group E

Table

1. Morocco- 21 points
2. Tanzania- 10 points (GD: 0)
3. Niger- 9 points (GD: -2)
4. Zambia- 6 points (GD: 0)
5. Congo- 1 point

The Situation

Morocco’s perfect run through qualifying may come at the expense of the rest of Group E with plenty of uncertainty for the other teams’ World Cup hopes. With the situation undetermined for the potential Group E runner-up and where they will stand compared to the other group runners-up due to the withdrawal of Eritrea before qualifying, the only thing to do is gather as many points as possible.

Tanzania appear the favorites to be the runners-up, but the Taifa Stars must defeat Zambia when they host Chipolopolo in Zanzibar on Wednesday, October 8. If the East African nation slips up, it opens the door for both Zambia and Niger to snatch second place in a winner-take-all situation on the final matchday. Zambia host Niger on Matchday 10 but will need to claim points off Tanzania to have any chance of keeping their qualification hopes alive.

Group F

Table

1. Ivory Coast- 20 points (GD: +15)
2. Gabon- 19 points (GD: +10)
3. Gambia- 10 points
4. Burundi- 10 points
5. Kenya- 9 points
6. Seychelles- 0 points

The Situation

Gabon’s failure to defeat Ivory Coast at home in September leaves the Elephants as the favorites to confirm their place at the World Cup finals. The Elephants face minnows Seychelles before hosting another already eliminated side, Kenya, in their final fixture. The job is simple: Two victories and the job is done.

The Gabonese team does remain in a strong position to qualify for the Second Round playoff, as they are currently the top-ranked group runner-up as things stand. Gambia is capable of being a pesky opponent when they host the Panthers in Kenya but realistically, the Gabonese team only needs one win between the Gambia clash and their finale against Burundi at home to reach the regional playoff. As things stand, it is difficult to expect the Ivorian team to drop points.

Group G

Table

1. Algeria- 19 points
2. Uganda- 15 points (GD: +5)
3. Mozambique- 15 points (GD: -3)
4. Guinea- 11 points (GD: +2)
5. Botswana- 9 points
6. Somalia- 1 point

The Situation

Algeria are all but assured of qualification and can finish the job with a victory against Somalia in Matchday 9.

The final fixture for Algeria at home against Uganda could have a massive impact. Uganda, currently in second place over Mozambique by virtue of goal difference, need to defeat Botswana away from home to have any realistic chance of finishing as runners-up considering the incredibly difficult task of earning points in North Africa.

For Mozambique, the opportunity is there for the Mambas to snatch second place and their chances rest heavily on the first October clash against Guinea. At home in front of their supporters in Maputo, a victory against a Guinean selection desperate to remain in the hunt would be massive. Mozambique will finish up against minnows Somalia and avoiding defeat against Guinea may be the only requirement to finish second.

Serhou Guirassy and Guinea have done themselves no favors this campaign and will need to defeat Mozambique in Maputo to have any chance. Even then, they will still need results to go their way on the final day.

Group H

Table

1. Tunisia- 22 points
2. Namibia- 15 points (GD: +8)
3. Liberia- 11 points (GD: 0)
4. Malawi- 10 points (GD: -1)
5. Equatorial Guinea- 10 points (GD: -4)
6. São Tomé and Príncipe- 0 points

The Situation

Tunisia secured qualification for the World Cup finals in September and now all that remains is to determine the Group H runner-up. Namibia are four points clear of the rest of the table but have two very difficult matches away from home, first against Liberia and then against group winners Tunisia.

A defeat at Liberia could set the stage for a tense final matchday for Namibian supporters and their World Cup hopes. Malawi can sneak into contention if they are able to defeat Equatorial Guinea at home, who have their own designs on second place if they can get a victory away from home before concluding the First Round at home against Liberia.

While the rest of the group may spoil their chances battling amongst each other, Namibia realistically need to get at least a point from their two difficult fixtures or run the serious risk of failing to be one of the four best group runners-up even if they finish second.

Group I

Table

1. Ghana- 19 points (GD: +11)
2. Madagascar- 16 points (GD: +7)
3. Comoros- 15 points (GD: +1)
4. Mali- 12 points (GD: +6)
5. Central African Republic- 5 points
6. Chad- 1 point

The Situation

Even with a disappointing draw against Chad in September, Ghana’s clutch results against their main competitors in Group I leave the Black Stars in a strong position. A victory against either Central African Republic or at home against Comoros on the final matchday will secure direct qualification for the World Cup.

There remains plenty of suspense in the battle for second place. Madagascar are in strong form but have an Indian Ocean derby against fellow island nation Comoros, who have faded rapidly after a strong start. Madagascar need to avoid defeat against Comoros because both teams have difficult matches on the matchday.

Which brings us to Mali. Despite failing to capitalize on multiple opportunities, the Eagles could very well sneak into second place and remain in contention for a World Cup debut. They will need Comoros to claim points off Madagascar, which would open up the possibility if they can beat Chad away from home and then overcome Madagascar at home on the final day.