Group B AFCON decider: Permutations for Bafana and Zim in Morocco

After a weekend of high drama in Morocco at the 2025 AFCON, the stage is set for a historic Southern African on Monday, 29 December.

While Egypt has already secured the top spot in Group B with six points, the second automatic qualifying berth will be decided in a high-stakes showdown between South Africa and Zimbabwe at the Stade de Marrakech.

Following their narrow 1-0 loss to Egypt—a match defined by a controversial Mohamed Salah penalty—Bafana Bafana find themselves in a “must-not-lose” situation. For the Warriors, who clawed back a 1-1 draw against Angola on Friday, the mission is even more urgent: win or face a likely flight home.

The Math of Progress: Group B Scenarios At AFCON

As per CAF regulations, head-to-head results serve as the primary tiebreaker for teams finished level on points. Here is how the paths to the Round of 16 look for both neighbors:

Scenario 1: South Africa Victory A win for Bafana Bafana would take them to six points, mathematically guaranteeing them second place in Group B. Regardless of whether Angola pulls off an upset against Egypt, South Africa would advance automatically. Even if Egypt were to lose and finish tied with Bafana on six points, the Pharaohs would remain top of the group due to their head-to-head victory over Hugo Broos’ men.

Scenario 2: Zimbabwe Victory If the Warriors secure three points, they will finish the group with four points, overtaking South Africa’s three. In this case, Zimbabwe’s final ranking would depend on the Angola vs. Egypt result. Should Angola also win, both they and Zimbabwe would be tied on four points. Since their direct encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, the tiebreaker would move to overall goal difference (both currently stand at -1). The team with the better margin of victory on Monday in the AFCON tie would claim second place.

Scenario 3: The Stalemate A draw would leave South Africa on four points and Zimbabwe on two. This result would be enough for Bafana to secure second place—provided Angola does not defeat Egypt. If Angola wins, they and South Africa would be tied on four points. However, Bafana would still advance because they hold the head-to-head advantage thanks to their 2-1 opening-day win over the Palancas Negras.

More Than Just Three Points At AFCON

The rivalry between these two nations is storied and often unpredictable. The last time they met, Bafana Bafana were dominant in World Cup qualifying, but the Warriors proved they could be a stubborn “spoiler” with a physical, high-intensity approach.

This time, however, Mario Marinica’s side is playing for more than just regional pride. With the four best third-placed teams also advancing to the knockouts, Zimbabwe knows that even if they miss out on the top two, a win on Monday could be their ticket to a first-ever appearance in the AFCON Round of 16.

For Hugo Broos and his charges, the objective is to silence the critics and ensure that the officiating drama of the Egypt match is forgotten by securing a clinical result in Marrakesh.