What awaits Bafana and the AFCON ‘big five’ in the Last 16

As the dust settles on a chaotic group stage in Morocco, the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) has reached its point of no return. Six continental heavyweights—South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Mali, and the host nation Morocco—have already safely navigated the group-stage minefield.

But for Hugo Broos and his Bafana Bafana side, the reward for survival is a daunting date with destiny in the capital.

Bafana’s Defensive Puzzle At the 2025 AFCON

South Africa’s path to the Round of 16 was secured via a frenetic 3-2 victory over Zimbabwe, a result that highlighted both their attacking flair and their startling defensive fragility. Having conceded four goals in three matches, Broos has been vocal about his side’s “vulnerability.”

Celebrate good times, come on….#BafanaPride@10bet_ZA @CastleLagerSA @HonorAfrica @SABC_Sport @Shield_ZA pic.twitter.com/udUTWVr67N

— Bafana Bafana (@BafanaBafana) December 30, 2025

Bafana finished second in Group B, meaning they will travel to Rabat for a high-stakes encounter on January 4. Their opponent remains a mystery—a high-stakes “three-way toss-up” from Group F involving defending champions Ivory Coast, five-time winners Cameroon, and regional rivals Mozambique.

Midfield anchor Teboho Mokoena, ever the pragmatist, was quick to shift the focus to the knockouts. “The real tournament starts now,” Mokoena stated. “We definitely have to improve our defensive issues, but we are ready. Any opponent is fine.”

The Powerhouses: Clinical and Cruising

While Bafana laboured, others have cruised. Nigeria topped Group C with a game to spare, looking every bit the title contenders with Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman leading the line. The Super Eagles will return to Fès on January 5, where they could potentially meet Mozambique, depending on the final Group F permutations.

In the north, Egypt and Algeria have been the personification of clinical efficiency. Algeria, remarkably, are yet to concede a goal in the tournament. Riyad Mahrez and ‘Les Fennecs’ are scheduled for a January 6 clash against the runners-up of Group D—the tournament’s “Group of Death.”

AFCON Knockout Blueprint: The Path to the Quarter-Finals

The knockout bracket for the 2025 AFCON is taking shape with several high-profile clashes already locked in. South Africa is scheduled to face the runners-up of Group F in Rabat on January 4, while Nigeria will return to Fès on January 5 to take on one of the best third-placed teams from Group B or F.

On that same day, Egypt will face the third-placed team from Group D in Casablanca, while a heavyweight showdown between Algeria and DR Congo is set for January 6 in Rabat. Additionally, Mali will kick off their knockout campaign against Tunisia on January 3 in Casablanca, shortly after Senegal opens the Round of 16 in Tangier against the third-placed side from Group E.

The Final AFCON Dominoes

The AFCON final picture will only be clear after the December 31 fixtures. All eyes are on Group D, where the final standings of Senegal and DR Congo will dictate the difficulty of the bracket for the North African giants.

For Bafana Bafana, the objective is clear: tighten the backline or face an early exit. Replicating the 2023 podium finish will require more than just the “any opponent” confidence of Mokoena; it will require a defensive discipline that has so far been absent in Marrakech.